The primary catalyst for yesterday’s drop was a 10% crash in global AI stocks originating in Seoul that swept through semiconductors and into crypto. Bitcoin moved in tandem with tech as investors rotated out of high-valuation sectors, with AI stock weakness turning the day broadly risk-off. BTC is now testing the $60K psychological floor for the second time this month. Five converging pressures are in play simultaneously. Patience is the word analysts keep using. Let’s dive in.
Trump Just Blocked a CBDC Ban From Becoming Law
President Trump canceled the signing of a major housing bill on June 24, putting a provision barring the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC until 2030 on hold. The bill had passed the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32 just days earlier. Trump linked the cancellation to unrelated voting legislation. What exception did the housing bill’s CBDC ban carve out for stablecoins? Read more.
Bitcoin Is Testing the Four-Year Cycle Again
Bitcoin fell below $60K on June 24 for the second time this month. ETF issuer 21Shares admitted its prediction that the four-year cycle would break in 2026 has not played out, while noting the 50% drawdown is milder than prior cycles. Bitcoin still trades above its $54K on-chain cost basis. Which 21Shares forecast for 2026 is still on track to be correct? Read more.
One Analyst Says Bitcoin Could Drop to $55K
10x Research founder Markus Thielen expects Bitcoin to break below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before this cycle bottoms, pointing to US dollar strength, hawkish Fed expectations, and seasonal weakness in September as the converging factors. Three separate models all point to a potential market low between late August and October. What specific date does one liquidity model identify as the next key inflection point? Read more.
Strategy Shares Hit Their Lowest Level in Two Years
Strategy shares fell to as low as $97.30 on June 24, their lowest level since March 2024. The stock has dropped more than 38% over the past month. STRC preferred shares remain under pressure at $84.35, well below their $100 par value, carrying $1.7 billion in annual dividend obligations. How many months of STRC dividends can Strategy’s current cash reserve cover? Read more.
Kalshi Is Now Chasing a Valuation Bigger Than Most Crypto Exchanges
Kalshi is reportedly seeking fresh capital at a $40 billion valuation, nearly double its previous $22 billion target. The deal would widen its lead over rival Polymarket, which was last seeking funding at $15 billion. CEO Tarek Mansour said the company is weighing a public listing, but not before 2027. Which high-profile investors backed Kalshi’s previous $22 billion funding round? Read more.
Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still a reliable framework for timing crypto investments?
TLDR: Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle is still a useful background idea, but it is not a reliably precise tool for timing crypto investments anymore.
- Past cycles aligned with halvings and showed boom‑bust patterns, but the timing and size of moves have already varied across cycles.
- As Bitcoin gets larger and more institutional, macro liquidity, regulation, and ETF flows can overpower the simple four‑year halving rhythm.
- Treat the cycle as a loose backdrop only, and base actual entries and exits on current data like trend, liquidity, and your own risk limits.
Disclaimer: This alpha is provided by CryptoMx. CryptoMx can make mistakes—please DYOR. Not financial advice.
