Yesterday’s CPI print came in well below expectations, sending BTC above $64K within minutes and snapping eight straight weeks of ETF outflows. The macro mood has shifted fast. Lower inflation reduces the case for further rate hikes, softens the dollar, and improves the conditions for ETF inflows to return. The regulatory pipeline is also moving, with major stablecoin decisions coming from both sides of the Atlantic. Let’s dive in.
JPMorgan Just Cut Estimates for Circle and Coinbase
JPMorgan lowered earnings forecasts for Circle and Coinbase on July 14 after a restructured revenue deal with Hyperliquid significantly reduced Circle’s share of USDC reserve income. The bank described the arrangement as a prisoner’s dilemma, pushing the two partners to compete against each other on future distribution deals. USDC’s circulating supply has contracted by roughly $7 billion since March. How does Hyperliquid’s new revenue structure affect Circle’s stablecoin income? Read more.
The ECB Just Picked Its Digital Euro Test Partners
The European Central Bank selected 36 banks and payment firms to join a 12-month digital euro pilot starting in the second half of 2027. Participants include Deutsche Bank, UniCredit, Revolut, Stripe, and Adyen. The ECB has pointed directly to the rise of dollar-backed stablecoins as the reason for pushing ahead with the project. What role will ECB staff play during the digital euro pilot? Read more.
The US and UK Just Released a Joint Crypto Roadmap
The US Treasury and UK’s HM Treasury published joint recommendations on July 14 covering stablecoins and tokenized assets, describing regulated stablecoins as tools that could make financial systems more efficient. The statement emerged from the Transatlantic Taskforce for the Markets of the Future, a bilateral initiative aimed at reducing cross-border market fragmentation between the two countries. What principle did both governments agree on for comparable financial risks? Read more.
Japan’s Biggest Payment Network Is Testing USDC
JCB, Japan’s largest domestic payment network, signed a deal with Circle on July 14 to test USDC for cross-border fund transfers and merchant payments. The pilot will start with JCB’s internal treasury transfers before expanding to stablecoin payments at merchants serving international visitors. No commercial deployment timeline has been confirmed. Which blockchain interoperability feature are JCB and Circle planning to evaluate? Read more.
Bitcoin Jumped After the Best Inflation Print in Years
June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, its steepest single-month drop since April 2020, sending BTC above $64,000 within minutes of the release. Annual inflation came in at 3.5%, below the consensus forecast of 3.8%. Analysts say a move above $66,000 could open the path to $70,000 and possibly $75,000 by month-end. What price level do analysts say must hold to avoid a lower high? Read more.
How does a lower-than-expected CPI reading typically affect Bitcoin’s price trajectory?
TLDR: A lower‑than‑expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) print usually gives Bitcoin (BTC) a short‑term bullish impulse, but the follow‑through depends on the broader macro backdrop.
- Markets often price in easier Federal Reserve policy, which can push BTC higher in the hours and days after the release.
- Lower expected real yields and a softer dollar tend to support “risk‑on” assets, including BTC, if the move fits a broader disinflation trend.
- The impact is regime‑dependent: if cooling inflation comes with rising recession fears or was already priced in, BTC’s reaction can be muted or even negative.
Disclaimer: This alpha is provided by CryptoMx. CryptoMx can make mistakes—please DYOR. Not financial advice.
